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Exam 3: Demand Forecasting

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Question 71

Multiple Choice

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Which of the following is not necessarily an element of a good forecast?

A) The degree of accuracy is stated.
B) Time horizon long enough so forecast results can be used.
C) Expressed in meaningful units.
D) Low cost to complete.
E) Technique is simple to understand and use.

F) D) and E)
G) B) and E)

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Question 72

True/False

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Organizations that are capable of responding quickly to changing requirements can use a shorter forecast horizon and therefore benefit from more accurate forecasts.

A) True
B) False

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Question 73

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The president of Northern University wants to forecast student enrolments for this academic year based on the following historical data: What is the forecast for this year using a four-year simple moving average?

A smoothing constant of .1 will cause an exponential smoothing forecast to react more quickly to a sudden change than a value of .3 will.

The following equation is used to predict quarterly demand: Y_t = 350 - 2.5t,where t = 0 in the second quarter of last year.Quarter relatives are Q1 = 1.5; Q2 = 0.8; Q3 = 1.1; and Q4 = 0.6.What is the forecast for the last quarter of this year?

Time series data may exhibit all but which of the following behaviours?

MSE weighs errors according to ______________ and MAPE weighs according to _______________.

The president of Northern University wants to forecast student enrolments for this academic year based on the following historical data: What is the forecast for this year using a three period moving average?

The primary difference between irregular and random variations is the ability to attribute variations to a specific cause.

A random pattern of errors within the limits of a control chart signals a need for corrective action.

11eab92b_c4ae_980f_99e6_058a8b4d7a5e What is this year's seasonally adjusted forecast for each season?

MAPE measures the:

Using control charts to monitor forecast error are best suited for forecasting applications involving a single forecast rather than applications involving a series of forecasts (e.g.monthly sales).

Use of simple linear regression analysis assumes that:

The two general approaches to forecasting are:

Since a primary goal of operations management is to match supply to demand,forecasts become a basic input to the decision process because they provide information on past demand.

Given the following data,develop a linear regression model for y as a function of x. 11eab92b_c4ad_fbc3_99e6_35b405954e5e

Which of the following steps is considered the last step in the forecasting process?

Forecast accuracy tends to increase as the time horizon increases.

Professor Z needs to allocate time among several tasks next week to include time for students' appointments.Thus,he needs to forecast the number of students who will seek appointments.He has gathered the following data: a trend has been identified in the data series. What is this week's forecast using the naive approach?